a great many people have the belief that the laws of attention do not apply to them
From my direct knowledge of road trauma, I would confidently assert that this is the leading contemporary reason for death on Australian roads. It used to be all sorts of physical reasons like car design, the landscape, the weather and such like. But modern car performance and road building has long ago exceeded the capacity of our neural systems to respond adequately in real-time, with arrogance multiplying that deficit. Even alcohol and other drug intake has been eclipsed by this.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
I hear that Dr Wakefield - UK researcher who claimed that MMR vaccination caused autism - is gradually approaching deserving justice.
Quite apart from the fact that he was paid by a legal group to perform research to the boon of legal action against the vaccine manufacturer, that he lied about that link, and that his co-researchers were not even aware ( well, that's what they say now ) of the extreme selectivity of the sampling of the specific children included : it illustrates some basic but oft repeated errors in understanding of probability and statistics.
Firstly, as soon as you go off random selection of examples ( in order to estimate population characteristics ) then you can make no reliable statements what-so-ever about the wider population. You contract the reliability of your findings to the anecdotal level - what you find is only shown to be true for the sample on display. Period. If you want to find out about everyone else ( not included in the study ) then you have to start all over again.
Secondly, the concurrence of a common event with a much rarer one will always show association. For example, the co-incidence of sunrises in the east with death by parachute failure later that day will always be strong. We laugh because it's 'obviously' ridiculous to inject causation here ( except that both have a common cause - the presence of a gravitational force in the universe ). But what if we have no 'obvious' guide to vet propositions, and especially so if we have no prior experience in some area of inquiry?
Thirdly, causation has association as a prerequisite, but sufficiency and necessity are quite different concepts.
That is where and when true scientific rigor must arrive, and we must accept that not all who claim the 'science' label operate with such stringency.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Thirdly, causation has association as a prerequisite, but sufficiency and necessity are quite different concepts.
Cause and Effect.
Edit: I found you don't look at statistics for answers. You look at them to determine what you don't know.
As far as Skydiving.I would not skydive. There is enough risk associated to it for what I would get out of it (Having the crap scared out of me) no matter what the causation associated with the risk. Now if I was going down in a pile of flames uncontrollably. Strap Me Up:-)
I think some people called it common sense. :-)
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
Damn!...Who moved all the
)
Damn!...Who moved all the furniture?...It's been so long i barely know the place.
RE: Damn!...Who moved all
)
Greetings Dan,
Its just me and I have been talking to myself a lot lately.:-)
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
RE: RE: Damn!...Who moved
)
I know what you mean...I do a lot of that on line and in real life...
RE: RE: Damn!...Who moved
)
Like my dad says... "I only talk to myself because I'm the only intelligent person in the room at the moment".
OK, so maybe it's not such a nice things....... :-)
But it was always said tongue in cheek.
Kathryn :o)
Einstein@Home Moderator
RE: RE: RE: Damn!...Who
)
When i need someone to argue with...i am always there for myself.
I think the world is going to
)
I think the world is going to be OK..:-)
Holy Bud
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
Evolution at Work Maybe :-)
)
Evolution at Work Maybe :-)
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
RE: Evolution at Work
)
From the article :
From my direct knowledge of road trauma, I would confidently assert that this is the leading contemporary reason for death on Australian roads. It used to be all sorts of physical reasons like car design, the landscape, the weather and such like. But modern car performance and road building has long ago exceeded the capacity of our neural systems to respond adequately in real-time, with arrogance multiplying that deficit. Even alcohol and other drug intake has been eclipsed by this.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
I hear that Dr Wakefield - UK
)
I hear that Dr Wakefield - UK researcher who claimed that MMR vaccination caused autism - is gradually approaching deserving justice.
Quite apart from the fact that he was paid by a legal group to perform research to the boon of legal action against the vaccine manufacturer, that he lied about that link, and that his co-researchers were not even aware ( well, that's what they say now ) of the extreme selectivity of the sampling of the specific children included : it illustrates some basic but oft repeated errors in understanding of probability and statistics.
Firstly, as soon as you go off random selection of examples ( in order to estimate population characteristics ) then you can make no reliable statements what-so-ever about the wider population. You contract the reliability of your findings to the anecdotal level - what you find is only shown to be true for the sample on display. Period. If you want to find out about everyone else ( not included in the study ) then you have to start all over again.
Secondly, the concurrence of a common event with a much rarer one will always show association. For example, the co-incidence of sunrises in the east with death by parachute failure later that day will always be strong. We laugh because it's 'obviously' ridiculous to inject causation here ( except that both have a common cause - the presence of a gravitational force in the universe ). But what if we have no 'obvious' guide to vet propositions, and especially so if we have no prior experience in some area of inquiry?
Thirdly, causation has association as a prerequisite, but sufficiency and necessity are quite different concepts.
That is where and when true scientific rigor must arrive, and we must accept that not all who claim the 'science' label operate with such stringency.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
RE: Thirdly, causation has
)
Cause and Effect.
Edit: I found you don't look at statistics for answers. You look at them to determine what you don't know.
As far as Skydiving.I would not skydive. There is enough risk associated to it for what I would get out of it (Having the crap scared out of me) no matter what the causation associated with the risk. Now if I was going down in a pile of flames uncontrollably. Strap Me Up:-)
I think some people called it common sense. :-)
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold