I agree with most of your arguments here. One can discuss a hundred aspects of prognosis quality of such weather forecasts. But as Tom M pointed out (and ALL models agree at the moment): At least the next seven days in the Central US, from South Dakota to Texas, will get extremely hot (>100 F). The US model, as well as the Australian one, forecast temperatures still a little (+3°C /+5°F) higher than European or models from DE, FR, CA. If we will ever get such heat here, authorities would impose curfews immediately... Wooooah: 48°C / 118F in Topeka KS, each day from Sunday to Thursday... unbelievable. Please, just stay in some cool, shady places, guys.
I normally use websites of the Swiss Jörg Kachelmann to check the forecast models. This guy founded the first non-governmental weather service provider "Meteomedia" in Switzerland more than 30 years ago. His websites offer (free) and convenient access to all known global and regional forecast models from the major national weather services; forecast maps are easy to configure without specialist knowledge on meteorology.
However if you are say a pilot and want to know if the wind is going to be strong enough that you will need another fuel stop, nothing past 2 days should be given any credence. And always check again just before wheels up. If you are trying to pick your way through a storm anything more than 5 minutes old is bunk. You need in flight radar. You can't predict to that level of area, time and accuracy.
I think, that's the current hot topic in meteorology research: How to combine weather forecast models with frequent measurements from precipitation radars, today's primitive (often linear) movement projections for such radar images for the following 30...60 minutes together with new, much more precise (small grid size to capture developing Cumulonimbus clouds) ultra-shortterm forecasts in order to better predict thunderstorms, heavy rain, hail, and wind gusts. These predictions have to be updated many times per hour which will require enormous additional compute power from weather services' supercomputers. I assume all larger national weather services are working on this stuff at the moment, calling it "NowCasting". So I'm curious about first results.
Rain in the Middle of USA (Kansas). Thunderstorms. Temperatures about 10F cooler than normal for last couple of days.
Tom M
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
Rain in the Middle of USA (Kansas). Thunderstorms. Temperatures about 10F cooler than normal for last couple of days.
Tom M
I guess maybe the lower temps make up for the rain unless of course the thunderstorms are HUGE and you need to take shelter from them.
Here at the NC/SC beaches it's in the mid 80's to mid 90's depending on when you are out there. We took the grandkids fishing off the pier this morning and it started out at 8:15am in the upper 70's but by 9:30am when we quit it was already in the mid 80's with full sun. The grandkids both caught fish so it was a great trip and they had alot of fun. The fish were no longer than 6 inches except for 1 fish that was closer to 8 inchs long of course all went back in to grow bigger or be bait for even bigger fish.
Yesterday, it was hot enough outside the house interior topped 92F so I not only shutdown my 6 gpu server. But the single gpu system I have. When I looked later it was only 91F in here.
I am going to have to get them shutdown earlier today. Another too hot outside day today.
===edit===
Come on cooler overnights!
===end edit===
Tom M
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
Yesterday, it was hot enough outside the house interior topped 92F so I not only shutdown my 6 gpu server. But the single gpu system I have. When I looked later it was only 91F in here.
I am going to have to get them shutdown earlier today. Another too hot outside day today.
Up until a week ago, after a hot week in July, we had a fairly cool summer for weeks now. The temperature rarely rose above 24 °C (75F). In addition, it often rained. The popular holiday resorts at the Baltic Sea coast had regular storms: no beach weather. While such cool and rainy summers were a regular occurrence in the past, they have become quite rare in the last two decades. But for a week now it has finally become a normal summer, 28...31 °C (82...88F). Occasional rain showers. In short: a perfect summer without unbearable heat.
I'm still waiting for the first real summer thunderstorm. So far there has only been some faint rumbles and weak flashes in the clouds above, a few large raindrops. You can hardly call it "thunder" and surely not a "storm". Our summer thunderstorms are usually small, only up to a dozen kilometers wide, short-lived but quite powerful. So far each one missed our city.
I agree with most of your
)
I agree with most of your arguments here. One can discuss a hundred aspects of prognosis quality of such weather forecasts. But as Tom M pointed out (and ALL models agree at the moment): At least the next seven days in the Central US, from South Dakota to Texas, will get extremely hot (>100 F). The US model, as well as the Australian one, forecast temperatures still a little (+3°C /+5°F) higher than European or models from DE, FR, CA. If we will ever get such heat here, authorities would impose curfews immediately... Wooooah: 48°C / 118F in Topeka KS, each day from Sunday to Thursday... unbelievable. Please, just stay in some cool, shady places, guys.
I normally use websites of the Swiss Jörg Kachelmann to check the forecast models. This guy founded the first non-governmental weather service provider "Meteomedia" in Switzerland more than 30 years ago. His websites offer (free) and convenient access to all known global and regional forecast models from the major national weather services; forecast maps are easy to configure without specialist knowledge on meteorology.
Kachelmann's US website: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa-east/temperature-f/20230728-2100z.html (Central & Eastern US, 2023-07-28, 21:00 UTC)
German version (DE, AT, CH, LU): https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/standard/usa-ost/temperatur/20230728-2100z.html
Thanks for the LINK!!
)
Thanks for the LINK!!
Proud member of the Old Farts Association
Gary Charpentier
)
I think, that's the current hot topic in meteorology research: How to combine weather forecast models with frequent measurements from precipitation radars, today's primitive (often linear) movement projections for such radar images for the following 30...60 minutes together with new, much more precise (small grid size to capture developing Cumulonimbus clouds) ultra-shortterm forecasts in order to better predict thunderstorms, heavy rain, hail, and wind gusts. These predictions have to be updated many times per hour which will require enormous additional compute power from weather services' supercomputers. I assume all larger national weather services are working on this stuff at the moment, calling it "NowCasting". So I'm curious about first results.
Rain in the Middle of USA
)
Rain in the Middle of USA (Kansas). Thunderstorms. Temperatures about 10F cooler than normal for last couple of days.
Tom M
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
Tom M wrote: Rain in the
)
I guess maybe the lower temps make up for the rain unless of course the thunderstorms are HUGE and you need to take shelter from them.
Here at the NC/SC beaches it's in the mid 80's to mid 90's depending on when you are out there. We took the grandkids fishing off the pier this morning and it started out at 8:15am in the upper 70's but by 9:30am when we quit it was already in the mid 80's with full sun. The grandkids both caught fish so it was a great trip and they had alot of fun. The fish were no longer than 6 inches except for 1 fish that was closer to 8 inchs long of course all went back in to grow bigger or be bait for even bigger fish.
Yesterday, it was hot enough
)
Yesterday, it was hot enough outside the house interior topped 92F so I not only shutdown my 6 gpu server. But the single gpu system I have. When I looked later it was only 91F in here.
I am going to have to get them shutdown earlier today. Another too hot outside day today.
===edit===
Come on cooler overnights!
===end edit===
Tom M
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor) I want some more patience. RIGHT NOW!
Tom M wrote: Yesterday, it
)
OOF THAT'S HOT!!!
Well, I could just about cut
)
Well, I could just about cut and paste my entry from June 18th here.
This time, no tornado sirens but the same tree that lost LARGE limbs then has lost some more in almost the same spots in the back yard.
Getting the chainsaw out again today.
At this point I'm going to have to call a tree surgeon to trim that tree.
Seti Classic Final Total: 11446 WU.
RandyC wrote: Well, I could
)
I'm glad you are okay but yes you are that tree has spared you so far but it will hit you if you leave it enough brances to do so.
Up until a week ago, after a
)
Up until a week ago, after a hot week in July, we had a fairly cool summer for weeks now. The temperature rarely rose above 24 °C (75F). In addition, it often rained. The popular holiday resorts at the Baltic Sea coast had regular storms: no beach weather. While such cool and rainy summers were a regular occurrence in the past, they have become quite rare in the last two decades. But for a week now it has finally become a normal summer, 28...31 °C (82...88F). Occasional rain showers. In short: a perfect summer without unbearable heat.
I'm still waiting for the first real summer thunderstorm. So far there has only been some faint rumbles and weak flashes in the clouds above, a few large raindrops. You can hardly call it "thunder" and surely not a "storm". Our summer thunderstorms are usually small, only up to a dozen kilometers wide, short-lived but quite powerful. So far each one missed our city.