Here in Brandenburg, Germany we have 22 °C (72F). Cloudy, some sun. It's windy (~3...4 Bft). For the weekend it will be a little warmer (24°C/75F), some rain and maybe a few light thunderstorms. Yesterday in the evening there was a violent thunderstorm with heavy rain over the center of Berlin. My wife and children were on the train returning from relatives on the Baltic Sea coast. They ended up stranded on the southern outskirts of Berlin in the late evening because of a damaged overhead line on their railway line. I picked them up by car (1 hr drive).
Well folks, according to Accuweather's long range forecast, Rockford, IL is supposed to reach the triple digits (100॰F) by this Friday, the 28th of July. It has been awhile, but it's coming...!
Oh boy, lucky you!!
My understanding is a LOT of the USA will be getting this. Kansas NWS put up a extreme heat warning starting yesterday (Monday) till Thursday evening. However, my 10 day forecast looks like 100+ or near that until next 7-9 days. Today is Tuesday.
Might be shutting down some Boinc processing :(
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor)
Well folks, according to Accuweather's long range forecast, Rockford, IL is supposed to reach the triple digits (100॰F) by this Friday, the 28th of July. It has been awhile, but it's coming...!
Oh boy, lucky you!!
I don't put much faith in the long range forecasts, they've already changed the 100॰F forecast for Friday down to 95॰F, and for Thursday also. I'll semi-trust the forecast for one or two days out, but not farther.
Regardless, it's still going to be fairly hot by Rockford's standards. I can't imagine living in Phoenix, AZ or anywhere in Texas where they constantly have temps in the 100's every year.
My understanding is a LOT of the USA will be getting this. Kansas NWS put up a extreme heat warning starting yesterday (Monday) till Thursday evening. However, my 10 day forecast looks like 100+ or near that until next 7-9 days. Today is Tuesday.
Ten days above 38°C/100F... Oh dear! ... That's extremely distressing. We're not used to such weather. It's almost impossible in Central Europe due to prevailing Atlantic west wind currents. If we have such days, we bike or drive to one of the lakes around here to cool off. We have a lot of large lakes in Southern Brandenburg and Northern Saxony (okay... 'large' by German standards,... 5...15 km² (2...6 sq.mi.) which are remains of ~150 years of lignite mining. Industrial scale mining which started in the 1940s leaves large lakes with sandy beaches, sandy shores, popular tourist destinations today. These lakes are deep enough (10...30m / 30...100 ft) that they don't get too hot in summer (max 23°C/73F). The smaller flooded gravel pits then often tip over, water gets too hot, algae blooms; shouldn't be drunk (e.g. kids playing or swimming); potentially life-threatening for dogs.
I don't put much faith in the long range forecasts, they've already changed the 100॰F forecast for Friday down to 95॰F, and for Thursday also. I'll semi-trust the forecast for one or two days out, but not farther.
A part of scientific meteorology deals with the verification of weather forecasts which progress is remarkable. The forecast quality continued to increase until recently, with more accurate weather models made possible by more powerful supercomputers.
Here is an example of the model chain of the German Weather Service (DWD). Accuracy (Y-axis 0.0 to 1.0) of air pressure forecasts several days (24, 48, 72 hrs...) ahead for their global weather models since 1968. The model name (e.g. "ICON13") includes the global grid size in kilometers. These results should be almost the same for US models (GFS) or European models (ECMWF at Reading, UK) which are in scientific competition.
[EDIT:] So, a four-day (96 hrs) forecast (air pressure) is correct with a 95%as good as a two-day forecast from 20 years ago for the Central Europe and Northern Atlantic area. Source: DWD (in English):
Around here, the weather forecasters usually show different Weather Models (i.e. - U.S. & European) during severe weather events such as hurricane warnings predicting the paths of hurricanes depending on which model is chosen. In essence, I think that is well to do to give us a more predictable forecast, especially for extreme weather events. Some TV stations give a different 5 - 7 day forecast than others, one even predicts out as far as 10 days, but they rarely tell us which model they're using. Because of the variability in forecasts, that is why I normally don't put much faith in the long range forecasts more that one or two days out.
Around here, the weather forecasters usually show different Weather Models (i.e. - U.S. & European) during severe weather events such as hurricane warnings predicting the paths of hurricanes depending on which model is chosen. In essence, I think that is well to do to give us a more predictable forecast, especially for extreme weather events. Some TV stations give a different 5 - 7 day forecast than others, one even predicts out as far as 10 days, but they rarely tell us which model they're using. Because of the variability in forecasts, that is why I normally don't put much faith in the long range forecasts more that one or two days out.
Here on the East Coast, North Carolina at least, we use the European satellite models much more than the US satellite models when it comes to Hurricane predictions and accuracy. In fact most weather people will show the US models but use the European models for their actual 3, 5, 7 and 10 day models.
That's interesting. I have the impression that we usually prefer the US model (GFS) for medium and long-term forecasts. Especially private service providers of weather forecasts for media, web services, TV news mostly use GFS. Okay, news providers often are greedy for headlines; according to the most extreme temperature or precipitation forecast. They take the model that then delivers the most impressive numbers. If you take a closer look, I have a gut feeling (for Europe) that forecasts for temperature and precipitation differ little for short-term forecasts (up to 2...3 days), regardless of the US, European, or German models (same for UK, FR, NL global models, also for JP, KR ones). For periods longer than three days, forecasts diverge significantly. But the theories and algorithms of the individual forecast models differ greatly; so larger deviations are inevitable.
Luckily we don't have hurricanes and the extremes within (e.g. no wind in hurricane's eye). In case of our winter cyclones, their path isn't so important; only core pressure, wind direction, date and time (moon phase: tide maximum) determine severity of storm surges. Well, and forecasts of our mostly small-scale thunderstorms don't work at all. So far, no weather model has been able to predict them in any useful way; not even a few hours in advance (still too small for model resolution).
Without knowing any meteorology, I'd say that 3...4 day temperature forecasts are fairly reliable, less so for rainfall. Trends up to seven days are often correct here. But 10 days seem to be hocus-pocus.
My take on forecasts is: what is the real question? Is the question do I need a raincoat? Do I need sunscreen? Do I need a winter coat? Do I need shorts and a tee shirt.
Essentially all the models are pretty good at that level for long term. Doesn't mean they are perfect, far from it. The butterflies do flap their wings.
Say you are a dam operator and need to know how much water to expect coming in the dam for the spring season. The right models are good for that.
However if you are say a pilot and want to know if the wind is going to be strong enough that you will need another fuel stop, nothing past 2 days should be given any credence. And always check again just before wheels up. If you are trying to pick your way through a storm anything more than 5 minutes old is bunk. You need in flight radar. You can't predict to that level of area, time and accuracy.
So that is the big thing to consider on forecast models, what is the use.
My take on forecasts is: what is the real question? Is the question do I need a raincoat? Do I need sunscreen? Do I need a winter coat? Do I need shorts and a tee shirt.
Here at the beach we answer that with 'cargo shorts and a t-shirt' year round, as for foot wear most people wear some kind of athletic shoe and either ankle or no show socks. I was walking thru a grocery store one time in January like that, it was in the 40's outside, and some obvious tourist was walking around in her heavy puffy coat, her mittens on strings in her sleeves, at least 2 pair of stretchy pants on, a big fuzzy hat pulled down below her ears and boots that you could wear climbing Mt Everest. She looked at me and asked why i was dressed like that and I said 'I go from my house to my warmed up car, from my car into the grocery store which is warm, then back into my freshly rewarmed up car and then back into my house again...she looked at me like I had lost my mind, while I thought the same thing of her and what she was wearing. By the end of the day it had gotten up into the mid 60's and I'll bet she was roasting!!!
Here in Brandenburg, Germany
)
Here in Brandenburg, Germany we have 22 °C (72F). Cloudy, some sun. It's windy (~3...4 Bft). For the weekend it will be a little warmer (24°C/75F), some rain and maybe a few light thunderstorms. Yesterday in the evening there was a violent thunderstorm with heavy rain over the center of Berlin. My wife and children were on the train returning from relatives on the Baltic Sea coast. They ended up stranded on the southern outskirts of Berlin in the late evening because of a damaged overhead line on their railway line. I picked them up by car (1 hr drive).
mikey wrote: GWGeorge007
)
My understanding is a LOT of the USA will be getting this. Kansas NWS put up a extreme heat warning starting yesterday (Monday) till Thursday evening. However, my 10 day forecast looks like 100+ or near that until next 7-9 days. Today is Tuesday.
Might be shutting down some Boinc processing :(
A Proud member of the O.F.A. (Old Farts Association). Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.® (Garrison Keillor)
mikey wrote: GWGeorge007
)
I don't put much faith in the long range forecasts, they've already changed the 100॰F forecast for Friday down to 95॰F, and for Thursday also. I'll semi-trust the forecast for one or two days out, but not farther.
Regardless, it's still going to be fairly hot by Rockford's standards. I can't imagine living in Phoenix, AZ or anywhere in Texas where they constantly have temps in the 100's every year.
Proud member of the Old Farts Association
Tom M schrieb: My
)
Ten days above 38°C/100F... Oh dear! ... That's extremely distressing. We're not used to such weather. It's almost impossible in Central Europe due to prevailing Atlantic west wind currents. If we have such days, we bike or drive to one of the lakes around here to cool off. We have a lot of large lakes in Southern Brandenburg and Northern Saxony (okay... 'large' by German standards,... 5...15 km² (2...6 sq.mi.) which are remains of ~150 years of lignite mining. Industrial scale mining which started in the 1940s leaves large lakes with sandy beaches, sandy shores, popular tourist destinations today. These lakes are deep enough (10...30m / 30...100 ft) that they don't get too hot in summer (max 23°C/73F). The smaller flooded gravel pits then often tip over, water gets too hot, algae blooms; shouldn't be drunk (e.g. kids playing or swimming); potentially life-threatening for dogs.
GWGeorge007 schrieb:I don't
)
A part of scientific meteorology deals with the verification of weather forecasts which progress is remarkable. The forecast quality continued to increase until recently, with more accurate weather models made possible by more powerful supercomputers.
Here is an example of the model chain of the German Weather Service (DWD). Accuracy (Y-axis 0.0 to 1.0) of air pressure forecasts several days (24, 48, 72 hrs...) ahead for their global weather models since 1968. The model name (e.g. "ICON13") includes the global grid size in kilometers. These results should be almost the same for US models (GFS) or European models (ECMWF at Reading, UK) which are in scientific competition.
[EDIT:] So, a four-day (96 hrs) forecast (air pressure) is
correct with a 95%as good as a two-day forecast from 20 years ago for the Central Europe and Northern Atlantic area. Source: DWD (in English):Hi Scrooge! Around here,
)
Hi Scrooge!
Around here, the weather forecasters usually show different Weather Models (i.e. - U.S. & European) during severe weather events such as hurricane warnings predicting the paths of hurricanes depending on which model is chosen. In essence, I think that is well to do to give us a more predictable forecast, especially for extreme weather events. Some TV stations give a different 5 - 7 day forecast than others, one even predicts out as far as 10 days, but they rarely tell us which model they're using. Because of the variability in forecasts, that is why I normally don't put much faith in the long range forecasts more that one or two days out.
Proud member of the Old Farts Association
GWGeorge007 wrote: Hi
)
Here on the East Coast, North Carolina at least, we use the European satellite models much more than the US satellite models when it comes to Hurricane predictions and accuracy. In fact most weather people will show the US models but use the European models for their actual 3, 5, 7 and 10 day models.
That's interesting. I have
)
That's interesting. I have the impression that we usually prefer the US model (GFS) for medium and long-term forecasts. Especially private service providers of weather forecasts for media, web services, TV news mostly use GFS. Okay, news providers often are greedy for headlines; according to the most extreme temperature or precipitation forecast. They take the model that then delivers the most impressive numbers. If you take a closer look, I have a gut feeling (for Europe) that forecasts for temperature and precipitation differ little for short-term forecasts (up to 2...3 days), regardless of the US, European, or German models (same for UK, FR, NL global models, also for JP, KR ones). For periods longer than three days, forecasts diverge significantly. But the theories and algorithms of the individual forecast models differ greatly; so larger deviations are inevitable.
Luckily we don't have hurricanes and the extremes within (e.g. no wind in hurricane's eye). In case of our winter cyclones, their path isn't so important; only core pressure, wind direction, date and time (moon phase: tide maximum) determine severity of storm surges. Well, and forecasts of our mostly small-scale thunderstorms don't work at all. So far, no weather model has been able to predict them in any useful way; not even a few hours in advance (still too small for model resolution).
Without knowing any meteorology, I'd say that 3...4 day temperature forecasts are fairly reliable, less so for rainfall. Trends up to seven days are often correct here. But 10 days seem to be hocus-pocus.
My take on forecasts is: what
)
My take on forecasts is: what is the real question? Is the question do I need a raincoat? Do I need sunscreen? Do I need a winter coat? Do I need shorts and a tee shirt.
Essentially all the models are pretty good at that level for long term. Doesn't mean they are perfect, far from it. The butterflies do flap their wings.
Say you are a dam operator and need to know how much water to expect coming in the dam for the spring season. The right models are good for that.
However if you are say a pilot and want to know if the wind is going to be strong enough that you will need another fuel stop, nothing past 2 days should be given any credence. And always check again just before wheels up. If you are trying to pick your way through a storm anything more than 5 minutes old is bunk. You need in flight radar. You can't predict to that level of area, time and accuracy.
So that is the big thing to consider on forecast models, what is the use.
Gary Charpentier wrote: My
)
Here at the beach we answer that with 'cargo shorts and a t-shirt' year round, as for foot wear most people wear some kind of athletic shoe and either ankle or no show socks. I was walking thru a grocery store one time in January like that, it was in the 40's outside, and some obvious tourist was walking around in her heavy puffy coat, her mittens on strings in her sleeves, at least 2 pair of stretchy pants on, a big fuzzy hat pulled down below her ears and boots that you could wear climbing Mt Everest. She looked at me and asked why i was dressed like that and I said 'I go from my house to my warmed up car, from my car into the grocery store which is warm, then back into my freshly rewarmed up car and then back into my house again...she looked at me like I had lost my mind, while I thought the same thing of her and what she was wearing. By the end of the day it had gotten up into the mid 60's and I'll bet she was roasting!!!