If I've read the anomaly page right, it seems that the supercooling on load is blameworthy. Hence they can't push that until a newer COPV version is designed/produced/tested/etc. This matters most for the big throws ie. above LEO.
[thinking out loud]
I wonder what the work functions for aluminium vs carbon fibre are ? That is : what is the amount of energy to remove one electron from a lattice. Aluminium is marked at ~ 4eV and it's quoted at ~ 5eV for a single carbon nanotube. But these are bulk functions ie. gross structure dependent. Anyway this differential of 1 eV is not alot, and well below activation for carbon/oxygen combustion. And so we return to the 'where/what is the hot thingy?' question .....
I don't doubt their engineering. In pragmatic terms one could be said to understand a system when you can predict it, in this case reproduce the problem.
[/thinking out loud]
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Postings from some people with wider knowledge, some outside, some inside, consider that the super-cooling of LOX and RP will continue, but that the helium (which is loaded to provide tank pressure during the burn) will be loaded slower and at higher temperature than was done on the event day. Apparently some revision of the COPV systems was required to make this fit it--possibly an extra COPV to provide more capacity.
SpaceX is being "economical with the details" but there are some heavy hints that helium loading details were materially revised between the prior norms and this event. Not clear whether this was sudden or gradual, but apparently not now considered to have been adequately reviewed. (I think this is what the president meant when she described the whole affair as a business process failure).
Postings from some people with wider knowledge, some outside, some inside, consider that the super-cooling of LOX and RP will continue, but that the helium (which is loaded to provide tank pressure during the burn) will be loaded slower and at higher temperature than was done on the event day. Apparently some revision of the COPV systems was required to make this fit it--possibly an extra COPV to provide more capacity.
SpaceX is being "economical with the details" but there are some heavy hints that helium loading details were materially revised between the prior norms and this event. Not clear whether this was sudden or gradual, but apparently not now considered to have been adequately reviewed. (I think this is what the president meant when she described the whole affair as a business process failure).
Yes. Thank you. I was wondering if it was just me or was the official release being sparse on mechanism ....
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Reports (not quite official) are around that the Iridium NEXT launch which is the F9 return to flight is no longer a Sunday option, but first opportunity is Monday January 9, between 18:10 and 18:30 UTC. This is much better for me, as the Sunday time was smack dab in the middle of church service.
There has been much chatter about the required license, or lack of same. Very recently the FAA issued this license, which has reference specifically to Vandenberg launches of Iridium-NEXT payloads.
Apparently the FAA is supposed to consider likely harm to others, not likely success of the mission, so this cannot be construed as full FAA endorsement of either the failure diagnosis, nor the remedial measures.
Nevertheless, this is a key obstacle out of the way. I now think that adverse weather is the single most likely barrier to a Monday launch. It does not help that this is a zero window length launch.
The new launch date for Iridium NEXT return to flight mission is January 14. Tracking data appear to show the tug pulling the barge is returning to port.
Launch time for this attempt would be 17:54 UTC.
While the weather was looking iffy for Monday, and there are some Vandenberg scheduling issues, I have not seen an official reason for the delay.
If I've read the anomaly page
)
If I've read the anomaly page right, it seems that the supercooling on load is blameworthy. Hence they can't push that until a newer COPV version is designed/produced/tested/etc. This matters most for the big throws ie. above LEO.
[thinking out loud]
I wonder what the work functions for aluminium vs carbon fibre are ? That is : what is the amount of energy to remove one electron from a lattice. Aluminium is marked at ~ 4eV and it's quoted at ~ 5eV for a single carbon nanotube. But these are bulk functions ie. gross structure dependent. Anyway this differential of 1 eV is not alot, and well below activation for carbon/oxygen combustion. And so we return to the 'where/what is the hot thingy?' question .....
I don't doubt their engineering. In pragmatic terms one could be said to understand a system when you can predict it, in this case reproduce the problem.
[/thinking out loud]
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Postings from some people
)
Postings from some people with wider knowledge, some outside, some inside, consider that the super-cooling of LOX and RP will continue, but that the helium (which is loaded to provide tank pressure during the burn) will be loaded slower and at higher temperature than was done on the event day. Apparently some revision of the COPV systems was required to make this fit it--possibly an extra COPV to provide more capacity.
SpaceX is being "economical with the details" but there are some heavy hints that helium loading details were materially revised between the prior norms and this event. Not clear whether this was sudden or gradual, but apparently not now considered to have been adequately reviewed. (I think this is what the president meant when she described the whole affair as a business process failure).
archae86 wrote:Postings from
)
Yes. Thank you. I was wondering if it was just me or was the official release being sparse on mechanism ....
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Reports (not quite official)
)
Reports (not quite official) are around that the Iridium NEXT launch which is the F9 return to flight is no longer a Sunday option, but first opportunity is Monday January 9, between 18:10 and 18:30 UTC. This is much better for me, as the Sunday time was smack dab in the middle of church service.
I think recovery is planned, probably by barge.
Well that snuck under the
)
Well that snuck under the radar. Elon has tweeted that they have completed a hold-down firing at Vandenberg ! :-))
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Tug Pacific Warrior towing
)
Tug Pacific Warrior towing the JRTI landing barge has left so almost certainly a Pacific landing attempt.
Tracking .... http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:434121/zoom:10
source reddit.
There has been much chatter
)
There has been much chatter about the required license, or lack of same. Very recently the FAA issued this license, which has reference specifically to Vandenberg launches of Iridium-NEXT payloads.
Apparently the FAA is supposed to consider likely harm to others, not likely success of the mission, so this cannot be construed as full FAA endorsement of either the failure diagnosis, nor the remedial measures.
Nevertheless, this is a key obstacle out of the way. I now think that adverse weather is the single most likely barrier to a Monday launch. It does not help that this is a zero window length launch.
Tweet :Quote:Iridium is
)
Tweet :
"Iridium is excited to share we're planned to launch on Monday, Jan 9 at 10:22am PST weather permitting."
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
The new launch date for
)
The new launch date for Iridium NEXT return to flight mission is January 14. Tracking data appear to show the tug pulling the barge is returning to port.
Launch time for this attempt would be 17:54 UTC.
While the weather was looking iffy for Monday, and there are some Vandenberg scheduling issues, I have not seen an official reason for the delay.
Iridium Tweet : "High winds
)
Iridium Tweet :
"High winds and rain in forecast at VAFB. First launch of #IridiumNEXT now planned for January 14th at 9:54:34 am PST. "
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal