One minute, the poor things think they know what we're thinking, and the next they realise they didn't.
Largely that's because the poor dummies take opinion polls as real. I won't bore you with the mathematics but suffice to say that to get reasonable confidence in any poll to be accurate to within say, one percent, requires a sample of several tens of thousands of people. No pollsters do that. The most I've ever seen are around 2000, and that gives a confidence of only two parts in three that the true sentiment of the population is within a 4.5% wide bracket. Specifically it is actually ridiculous to quote any 'trends' or 'shifts' under that number as representative of reality. This mythic trust in polls of such relatively trivial size out of populations in the tens of millions is very peculiar to the arena of politics. But of course the use of imaginary rulers is hardly the first objection one could make about politics.
The pollster themselves know this in their heart of hearts, but nonetheless apply 'corrections' or hopeful assumptions to allegedly improve accuracy. This is nothing but hubris : an invented correction to a faulty device, as no new data from reality is inserted. Or as Douglas Adams would say : a superficial design flaw that hides a deep design flaw. Indeed long term studies of particular pollsters have revealed mathematical inconsistencies in their results. These absolutely correlate with who is paying them to do said polls, so there is an intrinsic bias in the polling industry to please the written cheque. The urge to do this is quite strong because so often propositions made are of the form "because alot of other people think this way, then so should you". FWIW : I think it is quite weird that this anti-democratic reasoning is rarely pointed out as such, despite a plethora of historical examples of such foolishness. Sheep abound.
An outstanding contrast would be the results of the LIGO collaboration with it's GW detections. The confidence that they have in believing that two black holes have actually collided somewhere yonder is immense : it is only one part in billions that they have been fooled by non-astronomical/random detector activity ( that by fluke generates the correct waveform sequence ).
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Polls, as to the actual poll, the election itself, there is only a 1 sigma confidence that it obtained the correct result. To many ijiots can't mark the ballot the same way twice! Too many ijots can't understand the question! Too many ijiots don't care!
Sigh
PS do you want opinion polls to have 5 sigma error bars?
What I most enjoyed about science when I was little, was that the answers to questions got a lot more interesting than "it just does" or "they just do" :) Also, that you didn't need a brain, because curiosity would do.
But Isaac Newton gave me a massive crisis of confidence :(( I realised that If it had been up to me to work out there was such a thing as gravity, we would never have known anything about it at all...
I know - it's awful!
I'd never wondered why things fell down and not up :( When I fell down, it was because my feet hadn't gone the same direction or speed as the rest of me and not once had it occurred to me that apples didn't have feet. Fortunately I got over that... eventually
Please wait here. Further instructions could pile up at any time. Thank you.
The UK exit polls this time were cannily more accurate than ever before, to within less than 5 seats in their predictions. Up until the election it's feedback across the doorstep, and snap polls of what they laughingly call a "representative sample". But it is fair to say that across the board this election, virtually everyone expected a Tory majority of 60 or thereabouts. Even the bookies odds were all on that figure, and you don't see a poor bookie do you?
But of course we all know that many people say they will vote for anyone that knocks on their door, just to get rid of them. But experienced canvassers can ask a couple of pertinent questions and see through that ploy.
So what went so wrong this time in 2017? I think our venerable doctor is wise beyond his years when he suggests the Ovine influence. Most people expected the coalition to continue in 2015, nope it didn't. Most people expected us to stay in the EU, nope we didn't. Most people didn't expect another hung parliament as in 2010, nope we have.
Party leaders and PM's listen to all their advisors before taking drastic decisions. These advisors use their own inside knowledge topped up with the views of pundits and pollsters. Time and time again they get it wrong, they are the weak link in the chain. It ended Cameron's political career, and it will now end May's as well. Ex PM's don't usually (Except Brown) return to the back benches, they are seen as a distraction, so they relinquish their seat as well.
Politics is a necessary evil in a democracy, unless you prefer a dictatorship or strict religious regime where you just do as you are told.
Late edit - We might just have our own mini Trump if bonkers Boris becomes PM, look at the current odds being offered!
Waiting for Godot & salvation :-)
Why do doctors have to practice?
You'd think they'd have got it right by now
I'd never wondered why things fell down and not up :( When I fell down, it was because my feet hadn't gone the same direction or speed as the rest of me and not once had it occurred to me that apples didn't have feet. Fortunately I got over that... eventually.
Ah well you see, it was actually William Tell over 350 years earlier than Newton, that discovered that an apple was stationary provided his son also was. But that it fell off when hit by a moving projectile. Sadly he didn't overture the core finding to the scientists of the day.
Now c'mon Annie, there is only one gravity that is worth talking about, and that is specifically the strength of Old Speckled Hen English Ale.
Waiting for Godot & salvation :-)
Why do doctors have to practice?
You'd think they'd have got it right by now
Or is there some other subdomain where your content is?
Yes, there is something rather better but still a work in progress. In fact you have reminded me to return to that project .... both life and the days within are too short. I have been frequently accused of having latent authorship skills, but I'm too busy doctorating to find out. Anyhow I have fixed the redirection correctly. Try again ! :-)
FWIW : it turns out to be non-trivial to display mathematical notation in a widely compatible browser friendly way. I have written, but not published, much. Only the Set Theory topic has anything interesting in it, and that with errors alas. The site is intended to be a loosely connected collection of more-or-less self contained essays.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Just be thankful you don't
My local MP, one Nigel Evans (Cons) has apparently said "We didn't shot ourselves in the foot, we shot ourselves in the head"
Just be thankful you don't have Donald!
Seti Classic Final Total: 11446 WU.
anniet wrote:One minute, the
Largely that's because the poor dummies take opinion polls as real. I won't bore you with the mathematics but suffice to say that to get reasonable confidence in any poll to be accurate to within say, one percent, requires a sample of several tens of thousands of people. No pollsters do that. The most I've ever seen are around 2000, and that gives a confidence of only two parts in three that the true sentiment of the population is within a 4.5% wide bracket. Specifically it is actually ridiculous to quote any 'trends' or 'shifts' under that number as representative of reality. This mythic trust in polls of such relatively trivial size out of populations in the tens of millions is very peculiar to the arena of politics. But of course the use of imaginary rulers is hardly the first objection one could make about politics.
The pollster themselves know this in their heart of hearts, but nonetheless apply 'corrections' or hopeful assumptions to allegedly improve accuracy. This is nothing but hubris : an invented correction to a faulty device, as no new data from reality is inserted. Or as Douglas Adams would say : a superficial design flaw that hides a deep design flaw. Indeed long term studies of particular pollsters have revealed mathematical inconsistencies in their results. These absolutely correlate with who is paying them to do said polls, so there is an intrinsic bias in the polling industry to please the written cheque. The urge to do this is quite strong because so often propositions made are of the form "because alot of other people think this way, then so should you". FWIW : I think it is quite weird that this anti-democratic reasoning is rarely pointed out as such, despite a plethora of historical examples of such foolishness. Sheep abound.
An outstanding contrast would be the results of the LIGO collaboration with it's GW detections. The confidence that they have in believing that two black holes have actually collided somewhere yonder is immense : it is only one part in billions that they have been fooled by non-astronomical/random detector activity ( that by fluke generates the correct waveform sequence ).
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Polls, as to the actual poll,
Polls, as to the actual poll, the election itself, there is only a 1 sigma confidence that it obtained the correct result. To many ijiots can't mark the ballot the same way twice! Too many ijots can't understand the question! Too many ijiots don't care!
Sigh
PS do you want opinion polls to have 5 sigma error bars?
Gary Charpentier wrote:PS do
No. I just adore science and hate politics ! I look forward to dying with that attitude unchanged ..... :-)
Cheers, Mike.
NB My viewpoint also collapses the entire opinion-poll-talkfest industry.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
What I most enjoyed about
What I most enjoyed about science when I was little, was that the answers to questions got a lot more interesting than "it just does" or "they just do" :) Also, that you didn't need a brain, because curiosity would do.
But Isaac Newton gave me a massive crisis of confidence :(( I realised that If it had been up to me to work out there was such a thing as gravity, we would never have known anything about it at all...
I know - it's awful!
I'd never wondered why things fell down and not up :( When I fell down, it was because my feet hadn't gone the same direction or speed as the rest of me and not once had it occurred to me that apples didn't have feet. Fortunately I got over that... eventually
Please wait here. Further instructions could pile up at any time. Thank you.
Just be thankful you don't
Oh we are believe me, we are!!
The UK exit polls this time were cannily more accurate than ever before, to within less than 5 seats in their predictions. Up until the election it's feedback across the doorstep, and snap polls of what they laughingly call a "representative sample". But it is fair to say that across the board this election, virtually everyone expected a Tory majority of 60 or thereabouts. Even the bookies odds were all on that figure, and you don't see a poor bookie do you?
But of course we all know that many people say they will vote for anyone that knocks on their door, just to get rid of them. But experienced canvassers can ask a couple of pertinent questions and see through that ploy.
So what went so wrong this time in 2017? I think our venerable doctor is wise beyond his years when he suggests the Ovine influence. Most people expected the coalition to continue in 2015, nope it didn't. Most people expected us to stay in the EU, nope we didn't. Most people didn't expect another hung parliament as in 2010, nope we have.
Party leaders and PM's listen to all their advisors before taking drastic decisions. These advisors use their own inside knowledge topped up with the views of pundits and pollsters. Time and time again they get it wrong, they are the weak link in the chain. It ended Cameron's political career, and it will now end May's as well. Ex PM's don't usually (Except Brown) return to the back benches, they are seen as a distraction, so they relinquish their seat as well.
Politics is a necessary evil in a democracy, unless you prefer a dictatorship or strict religious regime where you just do as you are told.
Late edit - We might just have our own mini Trump if bonkers Boris becomes PM, look at the current odds being offered!
Waiting for Godot & salvation :-)
Why do doctors have to practice?
You'd think they'd have got it right by now
I know - it's
Absolutely ghastly!
Ah well you see, it was actually William Tell over 350 years earlier than Newton, that discovered that an apple was stationary provided his son also was. But that it fell off when hit by a moving projectile. Sadly he didn't overture the core finding to the scientists of the day.
Now c'mon Annie, there is only one gravity that is worth talking about, and that is specifically the strength of Old Speckled Hen English Ale.
Waiting for Godot & salvation :-)
Why do doctors have to practice?
You'd think they'd have got it right by now
Jonathan_76 wrote:Interesting
Yes, there is something rather better but still a work in progress. In fact you have reminded me to return to that project .... both life and the days within are too short. I have been frequently accused of having latent authorship skills, but I'm too busy doctorating to find out. Anyhow I have fixed the redirection correctly. Try again ! :-)
FWIW : it turns out to be non-trivial to display mathematical notation in a widely compatible browser friendly way. I have written, but not published, much. Only the Set Theory topic has anything interesting in it, and that with errors alas. The site is intended to be a loosely connected collection of more-or-less self contained essays.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
It's 2:00 AM - PDT, and I've
It's 2:00 AM - PDT, and I've woken up, (again), in the middle of the night...
Come to find, though, that Chris has Double Posted!!! 
I'll have a Double Shot of Jager, and a JD Single Barrel on Chris!
TL
TimeLord04
Have TARDIS, will travel...
Come along K-9!
Join SETI Refugees
You are very welcome TL
You are very welcome TL Sometimes it is worth putting ones tab behind the bar to make separate posts to avoid a very loooonng single one.
Barman, what the man wanted if you please.
Waiting for Godot & salvation :-)
Why do doctors have to practice?
You'd think they'd have got it right by now