S4 search will take more than 200 days to complete

Winterknight
Winterknight
Joined: 4 Jun 05
Posts: 1,308
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RE: I have been tracking

Message 24682 in response to message 24681

Quote:
I have been tracking the status S4 WU counters for the last ten days:
1532842, 1484374, 1436825, 1387363, 1336391, 1286103, 1237654, 1186583,
1132288, 1081776
linear projected end of new work 21.6258 days.


Using the figures you have recorded, which show on average a gradual increase in units crunched per day. If this increase continues then, using a simple compoud formula, on those figures, the projected end of S4 will be in 19.45 days from the datetime of your last figure.

Andy

Mike Hewson
Mike Hewson
Moderator
Joined: 1 Dec 05
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Did you all catch

Did you all catch this?
Cheers, Mike.

I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...

... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal

MarkF
MarkF
Joined: 12 Apr 05
Posts: 393
Credit: 1,516,715
RAC: 0

Winterknight: I noticed the

Winterknight:
I noticed the increase but the sample is to small to justify anything more than simple linear projection.
You could be right, if this is continuing trend. Which it may well be if people are starting to horde WUs.

Winterknight
Winterknight
Joined: 4 Jun 05
Posts: 1,308
Credit: 346,758,530
RAC: 489,619

Looking at number of S4 units

Looking at number of S4 units still to be sent and the number returned and validated last week. Will all the S4 units, except for re-sends, have been sent in approx. ten days?

@Mike,
Yes, had seen that. Thanks.

Andy

Winterknight
Winterknight
Joined: 4 Jun 05
Posts: 1,308
Credit: 346,758,530
RAC: 489,619

RE: Winterknight: I noticed

Message 24686 in response to message 24684

Quote:
Winterknight:
I noticed the increase but the sample is to small to justify anything more than simple linear projection.
You could be right, if this is continuing trend. Which it may well be if people are starting to horde WUs.


When I first made an observation in this thread, on the 4th, we were doing about 1.36 days work/day, that has now increased to nearly 1.5. So that small increase of ~1.004/day compounded over 22 days makes a significant increase.

Andy

Pav Lucistnik
Pav Lucistnik
Joined: 7 Mar 06
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Less than 1,000,000 units

Less than 1,000,000 units left in S4 run.

MarkF
MarkF
Joined: 12 Apr 05
Posts: 393
Credit: 1,516,715
RAC: 0

Winterknight: You are correct

Winterknight:
You are correct but the results based on linear regression of the entire sample have a standard deviation of about 2000 while the slope is about 50,000. With such a good fit I did not feel justified in fiddling with the sample.

The validated in last week number is much harder to interpret. It is so far out sync with the other numbers I have been ignoring it. I would definitely be interested in hearing more. I think it difference may be in the distinction between result and WUs.

Mike:
Thanks for pointing out that running out of new S4 WUs is not the same thing as running of new work.

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