edit: The big problem here in North America are these hedge funds which are exclusive clubs of Fat Cats in which people trade in high risk financial instruments that I can not begin to understand. They do serve a purpose because they help make capital flow (more Dynamic) but they need to be regulated
It's the old 'privatise the gain, but socialise the loss' trick. I don't know of any financial club/institution offering largesse to non-shareholders in the good times, but there's never a shortage of clamour to bailout - in the name of the 'common good' of course - when the rain falls. Call me a cynic if you like, but I'm the kind of guy that doesn't believe door-to-door salesmen who say they have come to help me out .... :-)
With all the problems going on... There is enough blame to go around... Everybody just should own up...
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
With all the problems going on... There is enough blame to go around... Everybody just should own up...
It looks like the complexity of those financial instruments that you mention is a ruse to obscure the true risk - ie. who will actually be left holding the bag. My beloved accountant politely advises me that one 'arms length' in a deal is plenty enough. Then he has to blush, and we both giggle, when I mention that his firm is effectively franchising some superannuation funds! But then again, he doesn't tell me how to write prescriptions, so at some point good old fashioned trust intrudes ..... :-)
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
With all the problems going on... There is enough blame to go around... Everybody just should own up...
It looks like the complexity of those financial instruments that you mention is a ruse to obscure the true risk - ie. who will actually be left holding the bag. My beloved accountant politely advises me that one 'arms length' in a deal is plenty enough. Then he has to blush, and we both giggle, when I mention that his firm is effectively franchising some superannuation funds! But then again, he doesn't tell me how to write prescriptions, so at some point good old fashioned trust intrudes ..... :-)
Cheers, Mike.
The purpose behind those risky financial instruments was to push the risk into the future.. The future finally caught up to us.. But where was the risk..
When I state there enough blame to go around from bank street to main street in any country. It was Main street who were the ones who were using their real estate equity that they built up, as an ATM machine. That what created most of the risk in the first place in a housing bubble. It was main street who put in the politicians that deregulated the banks in the first place. ( I know main street is just not informed what politicians will do and that is a cop out:-)) It was the bank sector that who let their greed have no bounds and they leveraged their institutions beyond any means that when in a down turn comes ( which always comes along) they can't support themselves.. I think for the past twenty years the western world was delusional.
There is another proverb that I am probably misquoting .. Those that don't know history are doomed to repeat it..
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
The purpose behind those risky financial instruments was to push the risk into the future.. The future finally caught up to us.. But where was the risk..
When I state there enough blame to go around from bank street to main street in any country. It was Main street who were the ones who were using their real estate equity that they built up, as an ATM machine. That what created most of the risk in the first place in a housing bubble. It was main street who put in the politicians that deregulated the banks in the first place. ( I know main street is just not informed what politicians will do and that is a cop out:-)) It was the bank sector that who let their greed have no bounds and they leveraged their institutions beyond any means that when in a down turn comes ( which always comes along) they can't support themselves.. I think for the past twenty years the western world was delusional.
There is another proverb that I am probably misquoting .. Those that don't know history are doomed to repeat it..
Some French guy probably .... name of Voltage? :-)
Push risk into the future. Well said. Get the next generation to pay. Assumption of success, all will be well etc.
Yeah, the prudential bounds ( ie. regulators ) define the maximum 'legal' leverage, but not that's not equivalent to the wisest. Ignorance plays a part, but that's a loaded phrase as you say.
History. It is reminiscent of Lloyds going belly up - the actual underwriters didn't think oil platforms would/could be dangerous, and were not limited in their liability. You can indeed have ~100 successful Shuttle launches prior to the one that mattered. That's the trouble with the long shot, but big hit, events. 100 year flood levels DO happen once a century ....
I suppose a lot are 'remembering' the Great Depression, when all money went under people's beds for a decade.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
The purpose behind those risky financial instruments was to push the risk into the future.. The future finally caught up to us.. But where was the risk..
When I state there enough blame to go around from bank street to main street in any country. It was Main street who were the ones who were using their real estate equity that they built up, as an ATM machine. That what created most of the risk in the first place in a housing bubble. It was main street who put in the politicians that deregulated the banks in the first place. ( I know main street is just not informed what politicians will do and that is a cop out:-)) It was the bank sector that who let their greed have no bounds and they leveraged their institutions beyond any means that when in a down turn comes ( which always comes along) they can't support themselves.. I think for the past twenty years the western world was delusional.
There is another proverb that I am probably misquoting .. Those that don't know history are doomed to repeat it..
Some French guy probably .... name of Voltage? :-)
Push risk into the future. Well said. Get the next generation to pay. Assumption of success, all will be well etc.
Yeah, the prudential bounds ( ie. regulators ) define the maximum 'legal' leverage, but not that's not equivalent to the wisest. Ignorance plays a part, but that's a loaded phrase as you say.
History. It is reminiscent of Lloyds going belly up - the actual underwriters didn't think oil platforms would/could be dangerous, and were not limited in their liability. You can indeed have ~100 successful Shuttle launches prior to the one that mattered. That's the trouble with the long shot, but big hit, events. 100 year flood levels DO happen once a century ....
I suppose a lot are 'remembering' the Great Depression, when all money went under people's beds for a decade.
Cheers, Mike.
Some people are saying it's worse than just another banking bailout, and some very distressing historical examples are being used ... a dear friend from Canada sent me a link to a YouTube video (it's about 27 minutes long) and asked me to pass it along to everyone I know ...
I've always loved math & science. Geography, history, and economics were my worst subjects. So I'm not passing this along as though I agree with it – I'd very much appreciate hearing anyone's opinions on it because it sounds quite serious ...
That doesn't sound like some kooky conspiracy theorist ... So what is it all about, really? What exactly is the truth? It has to be out there somewhere! :))
While comparisons like this are kind of catchy and do serve some purpose to visualize the shear dimensions, IMHO they completely miss the point.
Things like LHC and Apollo are kind of "luxuary items" that are built because of prestige and/or mankind's quest to enhance it's knowledge. We do this because we feel we want it and we can afford it.
For matters like this bailout or similar rescue bundles that are done here in Germany as well, decisions are made on a basis: what is the cost of doing it, and what is the (very near-term) cost of NOT doing it?
Also, as I understand that plan it's not like the money is per se lost. The government acquires assets judged too risky from banks that are in trouble and need to get those risks off their balance sheets. But the stuff is not worthless and might raise in value once the crisis is over. Some experts have even suggested that this could result in a big profit in the end for the government.
In contrast, I don't see any significant immediate financial returns (other than taxes) from building LHC , nor would there have been an immediate cost of not-building LHC.
[
Some people are saying it's worse than just another banking bailout, and some very distressing historical examples are being used ... a dear friend from Canada sent me a link to a YouTube video (it's about 27 minutes long) and asked me to pass it along to everyone I know ...
I've always loved math & science. Geography, history, and economics were my worst subjects. So I'm not passing this along as though I agree with it – I'd very much appreciate hearing anyone's opinions on it because it sounds quite serious ...
That doesn't sound like some kooky conspiracy theorist ... So what is it all about, really? What exactly is the truth? It has to be out there somewhere! :))
Greetings Chipper:
I listened... The problem is Naomi Wolf is to close to the problem. She is seeing the trees despite the forest. As a close neighbor of America I have every confidence that it will work out its problems. America represents the most dynamic society in the world today.
I put the problem at a basic human Habit.. A person no matter who he/she is.. is doing three things in their life. They are either clinging to something.. or they are pushing it away.. or ignoring it all together..
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
DownUnda our last stock market 'crash' turned out to be a non-event. It was true that X amount of money was 'lost' etc ..... however, as Bikeman points out, where does the 'value' truly go? It was actually transferred ( to those that sold at the peak, from those who bought off them ).
In the event the losers were in a fairly small demographic, not particularly crucial to any underlying 'engines' in our society. It was the speculators that were thrashed, and any downfalls only rippled to their immediate surrounds. So their loss, or lack of profit, didn't translate to any failure of important institutions/structures/projects of note. Also there was some confusion/mis-reporting of the baselines to work the figures from - if you have five consecutive good years then the sixth may well be bad - you can always pick the maximum negative slope on any fluctuating continuous graph ( Rolle's Theorem? ).
Partly due to 'value' having morphing definitions ( naturally ) thus makes comparisons across decades ( eg. Great Depressions ) more difficult. We aren't actually buying bottles of milk from 1932 dairymen, nor selling it on to 2056 families. Because some financial instruments are so distantly displaced from concrete entities ( like bottles of milk ) then said 'value' is of a vastly different character. So if one has invested/exchanged full bottles of milk for pie in the sky then the milk still remains available, but just not to you.
Ultimately it is a failure of contract. Monetary transactions are 'delayed reciprocal altruism' - so a 'loss' here is a failure of the reciprocity, not elimination of the asset ( like a Space Shuttle augering in ). Whatever real estate is involved in this current loan/bank business/fuss will still exist ( possibly awaiting hurricanes though ) - the real societal disruption is in the changes of ownership and liability.
I wouldn't think there is a great need to invoke much more than this ( except from those seeking sanctuary/buffer/recompense! ). I'm an Occam's man. :-)
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
It's true that all the assets still exist, but it seems they have been transferred from many people who needed them and still didn't have enough, to a few individuals who don't need them and already have plenty. And the people who were most responsible for it all, those who took risks with other's assets and lost them, they somehow personally gained many millions of dollars each ... how does that work? What schools did they attend to learn how to do that?
Give me an equation (or algorithm) for any type of economy you can think of, and I'll give you a list of reasons showing how and why it will fail. The occasional hurricane is one of the items on the list :) ... but I can do better than the list – I can tell you where the list comes from: entropy (including the thermodynamic definition and also the more generalized definitions) ...
Aside from learning the lessons of history in the effort not to repeat the same mistakes, what I found most disturbing in the piece from Namoi Wolf (and I hope it's not true) was that the Oath of enlistment was changed from allegiance to defending a body of rights/freedoms/liberties we all hold to be self-evident, to allegiance to single person. My country's government is split into three branches for a very important reason, readily apparent from the words of Lord Acton: "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
Thanks again for taking the time with that. I think it's a very good thing that the forest has so many trees, the more trees the better ... the future still looks brighter than it ever did, thanks mostly to the Internet and cell phones :)
[... while one of the most powerful governments in the world couldn't stop the 911 attacks, a few people with cell phones showed themselves to be every bit the hero as any US Marine ...]
__________________
“Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch, and liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.� --Ben Franklin
RE: edit: The big problem
)
With all the problems going on... There is enough blame to go around... Everybody just should own up...
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
RE: With all the problems
)
It looks like the complexity of those financial instruments that you mention is a ruse to obscure the true risk - ie. who will actually be left holding the bag. My beloved accountant politely advises me that one 'arms length' in a deal is plenty enough. Then he has to blush, and we both giggle, when I mention that his firm is effectively franchising some superannuation funds! But then again, he doesn't tell me how to write prescriptions, so at some point good old fashioned trust intrudes ..... :-)
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
RE: RE: With all the
)
The purpose behind those risky financial instruments was to push the risk into the future.. The future finally caught up to us.. But where was the risk..
When I state there enough blame to go around from bank street to main street in any country. It was Main street who were the ones who were using their real estate equity that they built up, as an ATM machine. That what created most of the risk in the first place in a housing bubble. It was main street who put in the politicians that deregulated the banks in the first place. ( I know main street is just not informed what politicians will do and that is a cop out:-)) It was the bank sector that who let their greed have no bounds and they leveraged their institutions beyond any means that when in a down turn comes ( which always comes along) they can't support themselves.. I think for the past twenty years the western world was delusional.
There is another proverb that I am probably misquoting .. Those that don't know history are doomed to repeat it..
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
RE: The purpose behind
)
Some French guy probably .... name of Voltage? :-)
Push risk into the future. Well said. Get the next generation to pay. Assumption of success, all will be well etc.
Yeah, the prudential bounds ( ie. regulators ) define the maximum 'legal' leverage, but not that's not equivalent to the wisest. Ignorance plays a part, but that's a loaded phrase as you say.
History. It is reminiscent of Lloyds going belly up - the actual underwriters didn't think oil platforms would/could be dangerous, and were not limited in their liability. You can indeed have ~100 successful Shuttle launches prior to the one that mattered. That's the trouble with the long shot, but big hit, events. 100 year flood levels DO happen once a century ....
I suppose a lot are 'remembering' the Great Depression, when all money went under people's beds for a decade.
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
RE: RE: The purpose
)
Some people are saying it's worse than just another banking bailout, and some very distressing historical examples are being used ... a dear friend from Canada sent me a link to a YouTube video (it's about 27 minutes long) and asked me to pass it along to everyone I know ...
I've always loved math & science. Geography, history, and economics were my worst subjects. So I'm not passing this along as though I agree with it – I'd very much appreciate hearing anyone's opinions on it because it sounds quite serious ...
Community Forum Interview – Naomi Wolf – Give Me Liberty
That doesn't sound like some kooky conspiracy theorist ... So what is it all about, really? What exactly is the truth? It has to be out there somewhere! :))
My opinion of geography, history, and economics is at an all time low ... from Alan Boyle's Cosmic Log, 7 Apollo programs = 70 Large Hadron Colliders = 1 bailout
RE: My opinion of
)
While comparisons like this are kind of catchy and do serve some purpose to visualize the shear dimensions, IMHO they completely miss the point.
Things like LHC and Apollo are kind of "luxuary items" that are built because of prestige and/or mankind's quest to enhance it's knowledge. We do this because we feel we want it and we can afford it.
For matters like this bailout or similar rescue bundles that are done here in Germany as well, decisions are made on a basis: what is the cost of doing it, and what is the (very near-term) cost of NOT doing it?
Also, as I understand that plan it's not like the money is per se lost. The government acquires assets judged too risky from banks that are in trouble and need to get those risks off their balance sheets. But the stuff is not worthless and might raise in value once the crisis is over. Some experts have even suggested that this could result in a big profit in the end for the government.
In contrast, I don't see any significant immediate financial returns (other than taxes) from building LHC , nor would there have been an immediate cost of not-building LHC.
CU
Bikeman
RE: [ Some people are
)
Greetings Chipper:
I listened... The problem is Naomi Wolf is to close to the problem. She is seeing the trees despite the forest. As a close neighbor of America I have every confidence that it will work out its problems. America represents the most dynamic society in the world today.
I put the problem at a basic human Habit.. A person no matter who he/she is.. is doing three things in their life. They are either clinging to something.. or they are pushing it away.. or ignoring it all together..
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold
DownUnda our last stock
)
DownUnda our last stock market 'crash' turned out to be a non-event. It was true that X amount of money was 'lost' etc ..... however, as Bikeman points out, where does the 'value' truly go? It was actually transferred ( to those that sold at the peak, from those who bought off them ).
In the event the losers were in a fairly small demographic, not particularly crucial to any underlying 'engines' in our society. It was the speculators that were thrashed, and any downfalls only rippled to their immediate surrounds. So their loss, or lack of profit, didn't translate to any failure of important institutions/structures/projects of note. Also there was some confusion/mis-reporting of the baselines to work the figures from - if you have five consecutive good years then the sixth may well be bad - you can always pick the maximum negative slope on any fluctuating continuous graph ( Rolle's Theorem? ).
Partly due to 'value' having morphing definitions ( naturally ) thus makes comparisons across decades ( eg. Great Depressions ) more difficult. We aren't actually buying bottles of milk from 1932 dairymen, nor selling it on to 2056 families. Because some financial instruments are so distantly displaced from concrete entities ( like bottles of milk ) then said 'value' is of a vastly different character. So if one has invested/exchanged full bottles of milk for pie in the sky then the milk still remains available, but just not to you.
Ultimately it is a failure of contract. Monetary transactions are 'delayed reciprocal altruism' - so a 'loss' here is a failure of the reciprocity, not elimination of the asset ( like a Space Shuttle augering in ). Whatever real estate is involved in this current loan/bank business/fuss will still exist ( possibly awaiting hurricanes though ) - the real societal disruption is in the changes of ownership and liability.
I wouldn't think there is a great need to invoke much more than this ( except from those seeking sanctuary/buffer/recompense! ). I'm an Occam's man. :-)
Cheers, Mike.
I have made this letter longer than usual because I lack the time to make it shorter ...
... and my other CPU is a Ryzen 5950X :-) Blaise Pascal
Thanks for the
)
Thanks for the responses.
I think our one true luxury is the sunshine ...
It's true that all the assets still exist, but it seems they have been transferred from many people who needed them and still didn't have enough, to a few individuals who don't need them and already have plenty. And the people who were most responsible for it all, those who took risks with other's assets and lost them, they somehow personally gained many millions of dollars each ... how does that work? What schools did they attend to learn how to do that?
Give me an equation (or algorithm) for any type of economy you can think of, and I'll give you a list of reasons showing how and why it will fail. The occasional hurricane is one of the items on the list :) ... but I can do better than the list – I can tell you where the list comes from: entropy (including the thermodynamic definition and also the more generalized definitions) ...
Aside from learning the lessons of history in the effort not to repeat the same mistakes, what I found most disturbing in the piece from Namoi Wolf (and I hope it's not true) was that the Oath of enlistment was changed from allegiance to defending a body of rights/freedoms/liberties we all hold to be self-evident, to allegiance to single person. My country's government is split into three branches for a very important reason, readily apparent from the words of Lord Acton: "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
Thanks again for taking the time with that. I think it's a very good thing that the forest has so many trees, the more trees the better ... the future still looks brighter than it ever did, thanks mostly to the Internet and cell phones :)
[... while one of the most powerful governments in the world couldn't stop the 911 attacks, a few people with cell phones showed themselves to be every bit the hero as any US Marine ...]
__________________
“Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch, and liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.� --Ben Franklin
Here is a look at the
)
Here is a look at the forest..
1 in 4
There are some who can live without wild things and some who cannot. - Aldo Leopold